Demographics of Kansas Voters: Part 1. Registered voters vs US Census voting age population
Demographics of Kansas Voters: Part 1. Registered voters vs US Census voting age population
US Census data show most 65+ age intervals have 100% or more registrations of the voting age population
This series attempts to provide new insights about voters and Kansas politics from a deep dive exploring demographics in Kansas voter files and US census data.
Demographics of Kansas Voters Series
Registered voters vs US Census voting age population.
Gender: Kansas has over 90,000 more female voters than male votes.
Political Parties: Kansas Democratic Party has 105,000 more females than males.
Counties: Comparisons of Kansas county census populations to voter rolls.
Readers are encouraged to give comments about their interpretation of the charts and data in these articles.
This first article looks at Kansas statewide voter data based on US Census age intervals to explore how many are registered compared to the US Census population estimate. Data from Johnson and Sedgwick Counties will also be explored.
These age interval comparisons should not be viewed as “exact” because of data limitations, but should give a fair indication of possible problems or data inconsistencies that need further study.
Some questions to explore:
How large is the youth vote based on registrations?
What age intervals are impacted most by “inactive” voters?
What might be the causes when an age interval shows 100% or more registrations than the population?
Statewide
The 2022 ACS 5-year estimate from the US Census says the Kansas statewide population is 2,935,922 with 2,234,510 of voting age (18 or over). This means 76.1% of all people in Kansas are eligible to vote.
There were 1,975,884 registered voters in Kansas statewide on June 24, 2024, which is 88.43% of the voting age population. The registered voters make up about two-thirds of the state’s population.
Barplots
The US Census defines 5-year age intervals, which were adapted for comparison against Kansas voter data. (See Data Sources below for more information including how the two-year 18-19 age interval was computed.)
The vertical bars below represent the number of registered voters in each of the 15 census intervals. The bars are divided into two parts: the active voters in blue, and the inactive voters in grey.
Each thick black horizontal line shows the 100% registration level for an age interval based on census population estimates.
The “gap” between the top of the voter registration bar and the black 100% line represents people who are not yet registered to vote.
Youth Vote
Youth vote. In particular, the gaps for age intervals 18-19 and 20-24 show the youth registrations still lag behind other age intervals. Only about 24% of youth 18-19 are registered to vote.
The age interval 20-24 has about 68% registered, which is considerably below all other age intervals.
A future article will show data for the large 20-24 gap and and lower registration rates, possibly caused by out-of-county (or possibly international students) at universities in Kansas. These international students are counted in the census but cannot legally register to vote. This effect is prominent in plots for Douglas (KU) and Riley (K-State) counties.
Inactive voters
The grey part of the registered voter bars represents “inactive” voters.
“Inactive” voters cannot be contacted by election offices through the US mail. Their current address is unknown.
The inactive rate peaks at 13.8% for age interval 25-29 and drops for age intervals after that until the rate is 3.08% for age interval 75-79.
Voters can stay “inactive” for many years and quick removal is often blocked by federal law. New national laws are badly need to remedy this problem and provide needed checks and balances.
One easy fix for inactive voters would be to require them to vote a provisional ballot with address verification.
Other voter “bloat” factors
Bloated voter files need more attention than they’re getting, but this is a problem in all states.
Statewide with all 65+ age intervals there are more voters registered than identified by the US census. How can that be?
The US Post Office’s National Change of Address (NCOA) used to identify voters who have moved does not track all who have moved. The post office does not know such a voter has moved. Often families will accept all mail for other family members who have moved away.
A recent Watchdog Lab article gave details of how the nearly 106,000 Kansas “active” voters have not voted since 2012 — in addition to the 140,000 “inactive” voters.
Nearly 250,000 registered voters should be scrutinized in Kansas. We need better laws — and attention to detail by administrators — to make improvements more quickly.
Data
All data used to create the plot above is in the following table:
Problems identified with voter data can be studied further, since names and other voter registration information is available from the voter file, but most census data sources are mostly “black boxes” with little or no additional information to research.
Selected Counties
Johnson and Sedgwick are the two largest counties in the state.
Johnson County has a very high registration rate (near 100%), while Sedgwick County’s rate is slightly lower than the state average.
Johnson County
The 2022 ACS 5-year estimate from the US Census says the Johnson County population is 610,742 with 465,532 of voting age (18 or over). So, 76.2% of the county’s population is eligible to vote.
There were 463,140 voters in Johnson County on June 24, 2024, which is 99.49% of the voting age population.
Data for Johnson County suggests nearly 100% of the voting age population has registered to vote. All age intervals 65+ in Johnson County are 100+% registered, and the interval 75-79 is nearly 154% registered!
Sedgwick County
The 2022 ACS 5-year estimate from the US Census says the Sedgwick County population is 522,700 with 391,274 of voting age (18 or over). About 74.9% of the population is eligible to vote.
There were 335,740 voters in Sedgwick County on June 24, 2024, which is 85.81% of the voting age population.
Sedgwick County’s registration rates of approximately 80% for many age intervals are more reasonable than Johnson County, especially below 65 years old.
But like Johnson County, Sedgwick County has nearly 100% or more registered for all age intervals 65+.
Data Sources
Census Data
The US Census Bureau produces the American Community Survey, which provides period estimates as opposed to estimates at a single point in time.
ACS data are produced on a 1-year and 5-year basis. The 5-year ACS estimates are used here since they are considered more reliable but are not as current.
A US Census online site provides interactive selection of data. The census data for Kansas statewide and by county can be downloaded from here.
After a bit of manipulation this Kansas census data can be organized into a single Excel file, which can be downloaded below.
Age_18_19 = Age_18_and_over – (Age_20_24 + Age_25_29 + … + Age_85_and_over)
Voter Registration Data
Kansas voter registration data are open records that anyone can purchase for $200. The 105 county clerks and election offices maintain the data, but the Kansas Secretary of State provides statewide data.
The $200 fee for Kansas voter data is higher than the $0 fee from Oklahoma, $35 fee from Missouri, $50 fee from Colorado, but less than the $500 fee from Nebraska. Ballotpedia provides this information for all states.
Using census intervals, the voting population consists of one two year interval, 18-19 years, 13 five year intervals, 20-24, 25-29, …, 80-84, and a final “catch all” 85 and above interval for the elderly.
Voters’ ages in this analysis were computed for primary election day (Aug 6) and assigned to one of these 15 ACS age intervals.
Related
Technical Analysis of Kansas Voter Rolls GitHub page. Reproducible research RStudio notebooks of R analysis code and related files.