Kansas Voter Registration by General Election Type: Presidential, Gubernatorial, Local
Kansas Voter Registration by General Election Type: Presidential, Gubernatorial, Local
Does huge political spending explain voter registration increases in recent gubernatorial election years?
How do voter registration numbers change by year in Kansas?
Presidential Election Year 2020
Voter registration in Kansas is highest in presidential election years, and 2020 was no exception.
In 2020 there was a large surge before registrations closed three weeks before the Nov. general election.
Gubernatorial Election Year 2022
In gubernatorial election years voter registration is generally lower than presidential election years, but higher than local election years.
The Dobb’s Supreme Court decision last year in overturning Roe v. Wade weeks before the Aug. primary election triggered a huge increase in registrations before the Value Them Both constitutional amendment contest in the August primary.
A separate article gives details: How did the US Supreme Court's Dobbs decision affect Kansas Voter Registration in 2022?
Local Election Year 2021
In odd-numbered years with only local elections voter registration trends are lower and mostly linear in Kansas for Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters.
All Years 2012-2023
How do the recent trends from years 2021-2023 compare with other years?
Line color is used below to identify the type of election year. All election years are plotted on the same scale to aid comparisons.
Analysis
The chart above shows registration numbers in 2014 were unusually low for a gubernatorial election year. What caused that?
Or, was 2014 “normal” for that time and registrations in gubernatorial years 2018 and 2022 unusually high because something changed?
Has there been a “forcing function” that might explain increases since 2014?
In 2014 Gov. Sam Brownback won re-election over Democrat State Rep. Paul Davis, but registration numbers were significantly lower than gubernatorial years 2018 and 2022.
The recent local elections in 2019 had higher voter registrations than the 2014 gubernatorial year.
What might explain the huge increases in voter registrations in gubernatorial election years 2018 and 2022 over year 2014?
In the previous gubernatorial election year 2018 the Kansas Democratic Party spent $30,000 organizing young adults and turning them out to vote.
Voter Participation Center / Center for Voter Information
A secretive group, Mind the Gap, formed in 2018 to alter the makeup of congressional districts. Mind the Gap funneled millions to Democrats in 2018 and 2020 through two non-profits, Voter Participation Center and Center for Voter Information.
VPC and CVI focused on registering new voters, requesting mail ballots, and getting-out-the vote before the elections.
The progressive groups Voter Participation Center and Center for Voter Information sent over 150,000 mailings with voter registration forms to Kansas residents in 2022 to help both Gov. Laura Kelly and Kansas Congressman Sharice Davids.
The groups sent over 50,000 mailings before the end of March 2022 and over 100,000 mailings before the end of August to Kansans. The numbers for 2018 and 2020 are not known.
The chart above for 2022 does not reflect registration “spikes” caused by those mailings, nor any differences among political parties near the dates of those mailings. How effective were such mailings? Or is the impact difficult to find?
Loud Light
Since 2017 Davis Hammet at Loud Light has focused on registering new voters in Kansas, especially young voters. Is Loud Light responsible for part of the higher registrations since 2017?
Brad Cooper in his Sunflower State Journal gave details about Loud Light’s activities in the 2020 election:
Davis Hammet, president of Loud Light, said the group had 19 people on nine college campuses registering voters last year.
He said the group registered 9,500 Kansans to vote last year.
Further, he said, the group contacted more than 200,000 young Kansans last year to make them aware of their options for voting.
“We have a really strong ground game at all the college campuses and we have for years and that’s been growing,” Hammet said
In 2022 Loud Light had 40 fellows organizing students on 10 college campuses, including voter registrations.
Loud Light has raised nearly $1.5 million to “build a better democracy,” including registering youth voters.
Loud Light’s focus reflects the reality that most new registrations are from younger voters than older voters.
Loud Light is a 501(c)(3) organization and mostly focused on voter registrations and civic education.
With its 501(c)(4) organization, Loud Light Civic Action, which started before the 2020 election, Loud Light Civic Action is active in other election-related matters.
Kansas Values Institute
Kansas Values Institute’s huge spending on advocacy ads likely has an impact on voter registration in Kansas.
Kansas Values Institute spent big to help Kansas Democrats starting in 2012:
$883,000 on elections in 2012,
$4.3 million into the 2014 governor’s race to defeat Sam Brownback, and
$6 million to elect Laura Kelly as Kansas governor in 2018.
This $6 million in 2018 helped not only Laura Kelly for Governor, but Sharice Davids for Congress in KS-03, and a number of state contests.
How much did KVI spend in 2022?
Executive Director Evan Gates reported at the Kansas Post-Election Conference at the Dole Institute in December that KVI spent about $17.5 million on their 2022 campaign, which was more than the combined amounts reported by the Laura Kelly and Derek Schmidt!
Like in 2018, Laura Kelly for Governor and Sharice Davids for KS-03 were helped directly or indirectly in 2022 by the monster KVI spending.
What about 2020?
A future article will explore a possible explanation for increased registrations in the 2020 presidential election year, which were much higher than 2016 and 2012.
Related
Young adult voting soars in Kansas, Brad Cooper, Sunflower State Journal, June 10, 2021.
