Second look at Advance Voting in Kansas before Aug. 4 Primary
Democrats are ahead of their Aug. 2024 primary turnout, likely due to US Senate and gubernatorial candidates, and progressive organizing groups
Summary Plot
[Summary plot updated with July 31 data]
This first summary plot below shows the three aspects of Advance voter data being released every day by the Secretary of State’s office.
The “Sent” line shows a huge spike in first-day mail ballots sent, because of the large permanent medical disability group. But after the first day, there’s only a steady pace of additional ballots being sent.
The “Return” line had a very slow start after mail ballots were sent on July 15, but the pace of returns is picking up. The grey dashed “Unreturned” line shows how many mail ballots are still outstanding. If all mail ballots are returned, the “Return” line would approach the “Sent”, and the “Unreturned” line would go to zero.
The “In-Person” line shows a steady increase in on-site ballots cast at election offices across the state.
Daily data for July 31
Republicans have led in InPerson voting the last four days and now lead InPerson voting.
Cumulative data for July 31
Details
Data breakouts for the Sent-Return-InPerson lines from July 28 are shown below, with comparison plots from August 2024
Mail Ballots Sent
This plot shows the cumulative number of mail ballots sent out by day with a breakdown by political party, and a separate breakdown by gender.
This Aug. 2026 plot shows females are receiving more mail ballots for all dates compared to male voters, and likewise, Democrats are receiving more mail ballots across all dates compared to Republicans.
The chart from Aug. 2024 (below) shows the Democrats and Republicans were neck-and neck two years ago, so Democrats appear to have picked up a mail ballot advantage this year.
July 28, 2026 (above) corresponds roughly to July 30, 2024 (below): three days of the first week of advance voting, followed by five days the second week, with two days from a third week. These Aug. 2026 vs Aug 2024 comparisons are roughly for day 10 of advance voting.
So, Aug. 2026 shows slightly more mailed ballots (56,094 up to 61,749) with Democrats increasing from 27,474 to 28,824 while Republicans dropped from 27,730 to 25,507.
There’s a pronounced increase in Unaffiliated voters in Aug. 2026 (7,194) compared to Aug. 2024 (869), but that’s likely due to the constitutional amendment that everyone can vote on.
“Sent” Chart Comparison to Aug 2024
Based on Aug. 2024 data, “sent” ballots in 2026 should start leveling off as election day approaches and returns become more unlikely.
It’s unclear how the two parties were nearly the same in “sent” ballots for the Aug. 2024 primary during all the days of Advance voting.
Mail Ballots Returned
Returned ballots will start arriving at election offices in very large numbers soon.
Democrats have a slight edge in returned ballots compared to Republicans, but that edge is smaller in the returned ballots than the sent ballots.
July 28, 2026 (above) corresponds roughly to July 30, 2024 (below):
There have been roughly 2200 additional ballots returned so far for the Aug. 2026 election (17,140 up to 19,308) compared to a similar time in Aug. 2024
From Aug. 2024 to Aug. 2026 Democrats increased their numbers by about 800 while Republicans are down about 400 returned ballots. In Aug. 2024, Republicans had a lead at this point.
“Return” Chart Comparison to Aug 2024
Republicans had a lead during Aug. 2024, but not this year.
Ballots Cast In-Person
Not all Kansas counties are offering in-person advance voting yet. The table below shows 29 counties started in-person voting on July 16, and that number has grown to 81 of the 105 Kansas counties.
The current Aug. 2026 chart shows Democrats have a slight edge in in-person voting in 2026.
July 28, 2026 (above) corresponds roughly to July 30, 2024 (below):
In person voting in Kansas is off the charts in Aug. 2026 compared to Aug. 2024. The post-election data from Aug. 9, 2024 shows slightly fewer than 40,000 voted in-person in that primary.
But the first 9 days of in-person voting (it was not offered the first day ballots were mailed) has greatly exceeded the whole advance period from Aug. 2024!
Democrats increased from 8,132 in-person votes in at this point in the Aug 2026 election, compared to 26,225 this year. Republicans are up too (from 8,930 to 25,038), but not as much as the Democrats.
“In Person” Chart Comparison to Aug 2024
The July 29, 2024 data seems to be messed up, and was left out in the plot below until it can be studied. This is an enigma from 2024.
But the change from July 26, 2024 to July 30, 2024 does not look quite right in the Republican data with a near flat line compared to Democrats. Why were there larger increases before and after this near flat line? I have all the files and records of all the voters in the advance data files, so this is something to study when time permits.
I'm working Advance Voting and my personal, unscientific experience with check-ins is that Democratic voters are outpacing Republican voters at my polling station.